Will Iran Target Another Maritime Chokepoint? The Bab El-Mandeb Strait Is Under Threat

As the U.S. and Iran trade fresh strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, concerns are mounting for another critical maritime chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Situated between Yemen and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, the waterway has again come under threat by Houthi and Iranian officials.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Wednesday it could target "all other export corridors that benefit the U.S. and its allies" in response to the U.S. reinstating its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all," the IRGC said in a statement carried by state-run news agency IRNA.

The Houthis on Monday accused Saudi Arabia of breaking a four-year cease-fire, blaming the country for an airstrike on the Sana’a airport. After the bombing, the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi ​Arabia, with senior Houthi officials threatening to upend global trade transiting the Bab el-Mandeb.

“If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock,” a senior Houthi official warned, according to a report by Iran's Press TV.

Experts have told TIME it’s not entirely accurate to think of the Houthi rebels as a direct Iranian proxy, as “they have their own locally defined interests.”

Yet the warning over the Bab el-Mandeb has fueled concerns that Iran could seek to disrupt the Red Sea gateway by using Yemen's Houthi allies to assert pressure.

At times of heightened tensions, the Houthis have used the Bab el-Mandeb as a geopolitical bargaining tool, disrupting the passage of trade in a similar fashion to how Tehran has monopolized the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war.

With tensions over naval navigation in the Middle East reaching a critical point once more, here’s what you need to know.

What is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea and is around 18 miles wide at its narrowest point.

It serves as a key transit route for oil shipments moving from the Persian Gulf through the Suez Canal to Europe and beyond to various worldwide shipping markets.

Experts tell TIME the waterway is critical for the global economy. 

“The importance of Bab el-Mandeb has increased specifically amid what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz,” says Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Saudi Arabia managed to re-route some of the volumes that used to cross via the Strait of Hormuz and go mostly to Asia and other markets. They started using a pipeline that runs to the Red Sea and exporting out of the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb.”

In November 2023, during the early stages of the Israel-Hamas war, Yemen’s Houthi militia began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting flows through the Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis framed their campaign as an act of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil exports and petroleum liquids transiting via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased from 5.7 million in 2020 to 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023. This figure decreased to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024 following the Houthi attacks on the Strait and remained steady at 4.2 million barrels for the first quarter of 2025.

However, in March, the Houthis entered the Iran war and in June, the group threatened to resume targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea.

Despite the rising tensions, Raydan says there has been an increase in transit via the Red Sea this year, with cargo companies pursuing alternative routes in light of the Strait of Hormuz coming under fire.

“We've had a lot of tankers that would go up to Yanbu instead of entering the Persian Gulf. They load in Yanbu, the Red Sea, and then they go back down via Bab el-Mandeb, and then they go to Asia, including markets like South Korea and China,” says Raydan.

Crude oil and condensate transiting the Bab el-Mandeb increased from 3.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025 to 5.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.

Data from the EIA also shows that the flow of liquified natural gas (LNG) through the passage has significantly increased, having come to a halt in the second quarter of 2025 and returning to 2.9 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026.

How has Iran threatened to restrict the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—and how could that impact global trade?

Throughout the Iran war, Iranian officials have threatened to use the Bab el-Mandeb as another way to exert pressure on the energy market and global economy. 

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, has indicated Iranian interest in the Bab el-Mandeb, which is Arabic for "Gate of Tears," due to its tricky navigation conditions.

“What share of global oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments transits the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?” he queried on April 3. “Which countries and companies account for the highest transit volumes through the Strait?” 

Iran’s direct ability to act in the region is limited, Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame, told TIME in April.

“The reason Iran can threaten to disrupt ships in the Strait of Hormuz is that Iran has military forces directly located on the coast of the Strait. Iran has no military forces near the Bab el-Mandeb,” said Gholz, adding that Iran would instead have to assert its influence via regional proxies.

Raydan tells TIME that having another vital chokepoint such as the Bab el-Mandeb disrupted in any way would undoubtedly “add more pressure to the global energy markets.”

“Fuel, oil, gasoline, and other products pass through Bab el-Mandeb. So oil tankers in general carrying liquids, we [also] have bulk carriers. These can carry, for instance, grains, they can carry steel. We have container ships. Container ships are the ones that can carry commodities like clothes, like toys, and other stuff. And then you have, of course, the gas carriers, and specifically here, I'm referring to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas, which is used for cooking and heating,” she says, highlighting the critical trade that transits the waterway.

If Iranian forces or the Houthis were to follow through on their threats against the Bab el-Mandeb, vessels would be forced to transit the Cape of Good Hope, a shipping route towards the southernmost point of the African continent, which could be a time-consuming and costly detour.

“If a ship wants to come to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is closed, and if it wants to get to Europe, the only way for it to do that, is to go around the Cape of Good Hope. There's no other way,” says Rayden.

Has Iran blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before?

Iran has not directly blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has largely fallen under the influence of Houthi forces since 2023.

Iran signaled interest in the area through limited naval activity in April 2015, when Iranian naval officials said two destroyers had reached the entrance of Bab el-Mandeb, describing their mission as protecting commercial shipping.

Analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has described the Iran-Houthi relationship as a partnership rather than a direct command structure.

The IISS found that, despite the presence of Iranian political and military advisers in Yemen's Sana’a, the relationship between Iran and the Houthis remains one in which both sides assert their independence while often aligning on foreign and military objectives.

How has the Strait of Hormuz disruption affected global trade?

The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown global supply chains into disarray and tightened energy markets around the world.

Oil prices surged at the end of April, with Brent crude nearing $126 per barrel—the highest level since 2022 when Russia invaded of Ukraine. 

In May, a U.K. lawmaker warned the world was on the brink of a “global food crisis” if the Strait of Hormuz did not immediately reopen. 

However, renewed hostilities—and Iran’s targeting of several commercial vessels—has caused prices to soar once more. 

According to the AAA, the national average price for U.S. gas reached $3.94 per gallon on Thursday. Prior to the onset of the Iran war, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $2.98 on Feb. 26.