ANALYSIS - JONATHAN SAXTY: The consequences of this war need to stop at Iran's borders.

12:00, Tue, Mar 10, 2026 Updated: 12:02, Tue, Mar 10, 2026

Saxby

Saxby (Image: -)

A question lingers as the Iran War drags on: has the Middle East conflict strengthened China and made a Taiwan invasion more likely? On the downside for Beijing, the US has – as with Venezuela – proved it can knock out a foe, and another Chinese ally at that. China is also heavily dependent on Iranian energy. Price hikes or blocked transits make China understandably nervous. That said, it looks as if the Iranian regime will survive, albeit severely bruised and beaten. This could give Beijing confidence there are limits to US might.

Just as Iran has lots of cheap munitions to balance America's technical superiority, China is in a similar position of quantity over quality, except more so as China remains the workshop of the world. If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thinks the US has run down munitions and will need time to build them back up, it may seize the opportunity on Taiwan.

To boot – unless Iran's mullahs are wiped out entirely – Xi Jinping and co retain an ally and energy supplier in Tehran, one even more dependent on its Chinese paymaster.

The CCP has its next major congress next November. I'd wager Xi needs something concrete to say about Taiwan by then.

He cannot keep pushing back the day of reckoning having marched his people all the way to the top of the hill only to march them down again. The loss of face would be too much.

Xi keeps clearing out his military top brass, especially those seemingly cautious on Taiwan. That seems to indicate something is brewing.

To be clear, without Taiwan the CCP cannot break through the 'first island chain'. The chain is currently made up of Western allies – including Japan and the Philippines, both host to US troops – and blocks China pushing through into the Pacific and dominating its backyard.

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The CCP simply cannot give up on Taiwan but nor can the US afford for Taiwan to fall, with all that entails. Will the Iran conflict therefore embolden China? Only time will tell.

But if the US exhausted its munitions with no regime change to show for it, China may see the next few years as now or never.