FRANCE 24’s François Picard is joined by Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Adjunct Senior Lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. According to Parsi, the current political situation in Iran should be approached with caution, as too much attention is being paid to the potential rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Republic is not a system built around a single individual, especially during a time of war. Decision-making power lies with institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards and the wider security establishment.
Militarily, outside observers also risk misinterpreting Iranian behaviour. A reduction in missile launches, for example, should not automatically be read as a lack of capability. It may instead reflect a deliberate strategic approach aimed at weakening defensive systems first, thereby increasing the effectiveness of later strikes.
Ultimately, Iran’s objective appears to be as political as it is military: to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries costs, and to ensure that any eventual negotiations with the United States occur on more serious terms than previously attempted. As Parsi puts it, “the Iranians are going to play this game their own way.”
At the same time, the US approach to the conflict appears to lack strategic coherence. Changing objectives and unclear political end goals risk turning the crisis into a cycle of escalating tensions rather than a path toward resolution. Even limited Iranian capabilities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could impose significant costs on the global economy simply through the threat they pose.
Parsi also warns that the war has complicated internal dynamics within Iran itself. While some Iranians initially hoped external pressure might weaken the regime, many are now confronting the reality that aerial warfare primarily destroys infrastructure and societal institutions.
The resulting human and economic costs may not guarantee political change, leaving open the possibility that the country could emerge from the conflict with a weakened state but an unchanged political system.
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Rouzbeh PARSI Head of MENA Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs
English (US) · 