French mayoral elections: Fractured vote reshapes alliances ahead of runoff

The results from Sunday’s local elections have highlighted the rising influence of both the hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed, LFI) and the far-right National Rally (RN), while exposing fractures within traditional parties like the Socialists (PS) and Les Républicains. In major cities, voters sent mixed signals – reinforcing old loyalties in some areas, expressing frustration with centrist and establishment candidates in others. 

With the second round scheduled on March 22, tactical decisions over alliances, withdrawals and voter transfers are becoming decisive across the country. Parties have until Tuesday at 18:00 (Paris time) to finalise their lists for the runoff, a deadline that is intensifying negotiations and shaping the strategic calculations of candidates. 

Strong showings on opposite ends of the spectrum 

The far-right RN performed strongly in some of its southern strongholds and made a significant showing in France’s second-largest city, Marseille, where it finished a close second in the opening round. 

Read moreFrench far right eyes Marseille upset after strong showing in mayoral elections

According to Paul Smith, associate professor in French history and politics at the University of Nottingham, the RN’s performance in Marseille reflects longer-term political trends rather than a sudden surge. 

“Marseille has been ripe for the far right for several years now, so the result there is not so much of a surprise,” he said, adding that if the RN ultimately wins the city it would be largely a consequence of its opponents' strategic choices. 

At the same time, the hard-left LFI secured enough support to advance to the second round in several major contests, including Paris, though its performance in these cities was relatively modest compared with other urban centers such as Lille, Roubaix, and Toulouse.

Smith also sees LFI’s broader national performance as a notable development. In previous municipal elections, the party invested relatively little in local races, focusing instead on grassroots activism rather than traditional local political contests. 

“This time, building on its success in general elections in 2022 and 2024, it has a foundation to build on,” he said. 

However, historian and senior lecturer in liberal arts at Queen Mary University of London Andrew Smith cautions that the results also reveal a deeper issue affecting elections in France: low voter participation. 

“The biggest lesson of the first round is that abstention is a sign of democratic disengagement,” he said. Even in closely contested races, turnout remained low, suggesting many voters feel disconnected from local politics. 

Polarised contests such as Marseille, he added, may nonetheless drive greater participation in the second round when voters face a clearer choice. 

Strategic alliances in key cities 

The fragmented results are forcing candidates across the political spectrum to make strategic choices ahead of the second round. 

In some cities, parties are negotiating alliances to consolidate their vote. In others, leaders are refusing cooperation despite ideological proximity, hoping instead to attract voters from rival camps. 

In Marseille, incumbent mayor Benoît Payan has ruled out an alliance with LFI candidate Sébastien Delogu even as the RN remains a strong contender. 

Whether such decisions weaken the left will depend largely on how voters react. 

“It depends on who stays in the race,” said Paul Smith. “Are the electorates fixed in place or would they shift?” 

Andrew Smith suggests Payan, who was at loggerheads with Delogu throughout the campaign, will attempt to lure LFI voters without having to embrace their party, casting himself as a bulwark against the far right.

“Payan will be hoping that he can win round LFI supporters without having to embrace the party, especially with the far-right breathing down his neck in the polls,” he said, adding that the situation could also test Delogu’s willingness to prioritise a broader anti-far-right coalition over strict party alignment. 

Another delicate balancing act is unfolding in Paris, where Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire finished well ahead in the first round but has rejected overtures from LFI candidate Sophia Chikirou. 

According to Paul Smith, the strategy reflects an attempt to attract moderate and centre-right voters rather than rely on the hard-left electorate. 

“He is trying to appeal to [centre-right candidate Pierre-Yves] Bournazel's voters rather than Chikirou’s,” he said. Grégoire would also like “some of LFI’s voters without wanting the association with LFI itself,” he added.

Watch moreWhy French mayors are throwing in the towel

It's a risky strategy for the Socialist frontrunner, knowing that Bournazel has decided to team up with Dati ahead of the second round. Far-right candidate Sarah Knafo has also reached out to the conservative former culture minister, boosting the latter's hopes of overtaking Grégoire in the March 22 runoff.

In Lyon, on the other hand, the incumbent Green mayor Grégory Doucet has formed a second-round alliance with LFI, bolstering his chances of defeating his centre-right challenger Jean-Michel Aulas, the former boss of local football club Olympique Lyonnais.

Implications for the 2027 presidential race 

While municipal elections are driven largely by local dynamics, analysts say they may still provide clues about the political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election. 

Paul Smith argues that the results signal a return to a more traditional left-right divide, with President Emmanuel Macron's shrinking centrist camp squeezed in between. 

“It suggests we are back to a left-right configuration,” he said, describing a system resembling the old “quadrille bipolaire” dominated by four main political parties.  

On the left, LFI and the Socialists are emerging as the main competing forces, with the Greens often attempting to bridge the divide. In some cities, including Lille, the Greens have backed Socialist candidates against LFI. In others, notably Strasbourg, hey have sided with LFI against the Socialists. 

Read moreIn France's municipal elections, 2027 presidential race looms large

At the other end of the spectrum, the conservative Les Républicains are competing for influence with the National Rally, which is peeling away candidates and voters from the mainstream right.

How those alliances and divisions play out in the coming days may well influence political landscape going into next year's all-important presidential and legislative contests.

As Andrew Smith says, “The campaigns for the 2027 presidential election will be shaped by how willing the Socialists are to work with LFI, and how porous the centre-right is to the far right.”